Auctions and market trends
Supply of paintings
It is an interesting exercise to estimate the output of a Ming-Qing painter and the likely number of works that remain in private hands. In making such an estimate we will consider the largest likely number of fine paintings, being realistic about the present level of scholarship and the inability to clearly differentiate a master's work from the better pieces of his 'studio and followers' or 'school'. Hence, we will estimate a total that includes BOTH the original production of an artist AND contemporary copies of his work.
A qualitative distinction is also made - we are only interested in the best works of both categories. We exclude minor and inferior works by the artist himself as well as copies that can clearly be distinguished as such.
1. Active life of an artist
Taking a sample of more than fifty leading painters of this period (link), it can be seen that the average lifespan of this group was 69.5 years
Biographical accounts and discussions with art historians indicate that most Ming-Qing artists made little significant art prior to age 30
Subsequent productive life therefore averaged about 40 years – and not only did painters of the literati class live long lives, they frequently produced excellent work up until their death
2. Output
Production of significant paintings (e.g. a large scroll, an album of 10 pages) would likely be no more than 2 each month, especially if one considers periods of non-productive travel, household management and official duties
Production of smaller and less significant paintings might be up to 10 per month; these can be discounted
So 24 significant paintings per annum x 40 years = approximately 960
3. Contemporary copies
Estimating the number of copies made is intrinsically difficult. Ming artists and collectors regularly joked that there were ten times as many copies as originals. However it is clear that only a small portion of these are qualitatively as good as the best works of the original artist (that is, they cannot be distinguished by experts). However, based on what now seems to be acknowledged in museums and art history circles, probably the number of excellent studio works and copies can be no more than half the number produced by a famous artist. So, we could estimate a further 480.
4. Existing paintings
In the intervening 400-500 years, it is likely that at least half of all of these have perished through decay, neglect, fire, or wilful destruction
So, perhaps 720 pieces remain.
5. Numbers permanently withdrawn to museums
Examining a selection of books on leading artists one finds records of about 200 different images from museums. In view of the limited extent of publication of their collections by Chinese institutions, there are likely another 100 held in museums that have not been published
Leaving around 400 good paintings in private hands. Many of these will continue to be held in family collections for the foreseeable future and some will be donated to museums by their owners, especially in the context of China’s museum development. It is unlikely that even a third of those in private hands will be released to the market in the next decade. As interest grows in this field, it will become increasingly difficult – and expensive – to acquire good works by important figures.